Reading, Thinking & Writing Portfolio - Jan 2024

Live portfolio with buy and sell activity

Background:

I am newish to investing and up to May of 2021 I was solely invested in index funds. In May 2021 I started stock-picking with “confidence,” focusing on the hot tech stocks. I quickly realized how little I knew and from May 2021 to December 2022 I had a lost money overall. I started this live mock portfolio project in December 2022, which closely approximates my real holdings, so I can track how I am doing in more detail. I have only shared this with a few friends up to this point, but I want to try sharing the link so anyone can follow along as I go through the ups and downs of learning how to consistently beat the market.

Here is a link to the live portfolio:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CYey3rCG6-YsKtWJlGQQp_Ltlbatkr8q5WRwHRhpZAU/edit?usp=sharing

Here is a preview:

A few notes:

1. I am sharing this as an experiment for fun and I provide no guarantees on how long I will keep the link/portfolio active.

2. I use the S&P 500 as a benchmark because it is one of the most popular indexes for dollar cost averaging passively. Dollar cost averaging into an index is a great option for anyone who wants exposure to equities, but doesn’t want to spend time researching individual companies.

3. I have only met two management teams and I don’t reach out to management teams often. As mitigating factors, for almost all of the companies I have either watched recorded management interviews and/or cloned the original idea from investors I follow, after performing my own research and due diligence.

4. Not all investments are researched with the same vigor - I have spent dozens of hours researching some companies and others less than 10 hours.

5. I will post my buys and sells after the fact on the ‘Activity’ tab, often within a day or two, but no guarantees on timeliness as it depends on how busy I am.

6. Even if I invest in a company with the expectation of holding long-term, I could sell out at any time for any reason i.e. a change in my perception of the company, reallocating funds to a perceived better investment opportunity, cash requirements, or otherwise.

7. I am open to changing my mind as I learn more, but I will try to include the rationale for each move.

8. Even though I performed well in 2023 (+25% for the year), the general market did well too. This could have been luck driven and these results could be much worse going forward, although I do believe that small caps have been underperforming large caps as a whole which should help a portfolio like mine as market valuations between large-cap and small-cap companies converge. I couldn't confirm it was Warren Buffet that said this, but I think it's a good quote regardless:

   1. 

9. Macroeconomics don’t play a large part in my decision making and my hope is that the companies I have chosen outperform even if there is a general market downturn i.e. don’t go down as much as the rest.

10. I diversify for (1) risk mitigation; and more importantly (2) because I don’t know when market prices will converge with my assessed intrinsic value of each portfolio company, if ever.

11. If the portfolio does poorly that’s ok, I can re-brand with new picks in a few years and try again. :)

Instructions for the spreadsheet:

1. HOLDINGS tab displays the overall portfolio return metrics (est. CAGR & YTD), my summary thoughts, and the individual gain/loss % of each company.

2. HISTORICAL RESULTS tab tracks the historical performance vs the S&P 500 since detailed tracking started December 25, 2022.

3. ACTIVITY tab indicates all buys and sells starting in December 2023. The activity/history can be followed going forward.

4. PROCESS tab contains rough notes on my current strategy.

Feel free to follow along for fun and please ask questions if anything is unclear or provide suggestions if you have any. We’ll see how I do over the next few years.

Best wishes,
The Curious Investor

Disclaimer: This investment blog and mock portfolio share personal experiences of an amateur investor for educational and illustrative purposes only; the author is not a licensed investment professional. The content provides transparent insights into investing thoughts and performance, acknowledging the possibility of mistakes. Results are not guaranteed and readers are cautioned against blindly following recommendations. Before making financial decisions, readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional and tailor investments to their individual circumstances. The content should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investing carries risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results and the author is not responsible for any reader's investment actions.

The model is subject to ongoing development and may contain errors and/or invalid assumptions. Be aware that it is generally not practicable to test a computer spreadsheet to the extent whereby it can be assured that all errors have been detected.